Forecasting The Number of Traffic Accidents in Purbalingga Regency on 2023 Using Time Series Model

Abstract

Accident data from Satlantas Purbalingga Regency shows that in 2022 there is an increase in the number of traffic accidents in the Purbalingga Regency. In the future, the impact of accidents is predicted to be bigger so it is necessary to forecasting. Forecasting is one of the most important elements in decision making, because effective or not a decision generally depends on several factors that can not be seen at the time the decision was taken. In this time study the possible time series model is ARMA (2,2), ARMA (2,1), ARMA (1,2), ARMA (1,1), AR (2), AR (1), MA (2), MA (1). However, after testing, the model used is  ARMA (1,1).  This model is used because it meets all the assumption requirements that are parameter significant, residual independent test, residual normality test, and the smallest  Mean  Square Error value.  According to data forecasting results the highest number of crashes existed in January of 97 accidents and the lowest in December amounted to 93 accidents, So the necessary action from the relevant agencies to cope with the increasing number of traffic accidents in the Purbalingga Regency.